I am writing this on the Saturday before the Iowa caucuses, and I’ll have to admit to a feeling of excitement as the day approaches. Admittedly, the Iowa caucuses are surrounded by a lot of hype and are vastly overrated. Nevertheless, I can’t help but get caught up in the excitement, especially when it comes to the Republican side.
My personal prediction is that Ted Cruz will win in the Republican caucuses, despite Donald Trump’s lead in the polls. Ted Cruz seems to be the favorite among Iowa’s conservative Christians, who are more likely to take the trouble to go out on a cold winter’s night to attend a caucus. According to analysts, a large segment of Donald Trump’s support is made up of people who seldom vote.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders seem to be in a virtual tie in the polls. I believe Hillary Clinton will win. Why? Bernie Sanders is especially popular among younger people, who have a poor record of turning out to vote, especially in primaries. Hillary Clinton has more support among older voters, who are more likely to take the time to caucus.
However, we shouldn’t give the Iowa caucuses too much importance. The winners of the caucuses seldom go on to become their parties’ nominees. I doubt if either Ted Cruz or Bernie Sanders will end up being nominated.
Finally, a plug for my book. That picture of me standing beside an enormous road sign in Spain is the cover of my ebook, currently selling on Amazon. If you click on the cover, a new browser window will open showing the book’s webpage on Amazon.com